METHODOLOGY OF MODELING TRENDS OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The high level of uncertainty in the modern socio-economic systems functioning, the complexity and hierarchy of the agricultural markets structure, the negative impact of external uncontrollable factors on the functioning and development of national and local markets necessitate the methodology development for identifying trends in key market indicators in the production and sale of livestock products of modern methods and procedures for economic and mathematical modeling, in particular, econometric modeling. The methodological approach to the analysis and prediction of market trends developed in the study is implemented within the framework of preparatory procedures number, namely: data collection and processing (including the direct creation of econometric models system), as well as the scenario forecasts development of the livestock products market depending on requests target audience. The proposed methodology for modeling market trends makes it possible to detect and prevent negative shifts in the development of the livestock products market in advance, as well as to substantiate the socio-economic effectiveness of state support for livestock products producers. The substantiation of the stages of the modeling trends process in the livestock products market, an important component of its methodology is the list of indicators definition that are development indicators of the agricultural products market, as well as the system of exogenous and endogenous variables that affect the performance indicators. In the above context, it is extremely important to take into account the fact that the livestock market is a complex system, which, on the one hand, has a hierarchical structure, and, on the other hand, is subject to the influence of a significant number of external factors. The next step after the modeling methodology development is its approbation by building a system of regression models of indicators of the animal husbandry market, among which the main indicators are demand, supply and market prices.