STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE NUMBER OF FIRES IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Among the possible dangers, fires definitely rank first. In Ukraine, there is a growing trend in the number of fires and the damage they cause. Therefore, identifying the structure of cause-and-effect patterns of this hazardous phenomenon is important for the development of measures to reduce the negative consequences of fires. The considerable array of statistical information on fires and their consequences, which is annually collected and published by the Ukrainian Research Institute of Civil Protection, gives an opportunity to carry out a range of relevant statistical researches. The research objective is to study structural changes in fire spread in Ukraine’s regions for the last 9 years. The study is based on statistical data from 2013–2021 on fire spread in 24 regions and Kyiv city. In order to identify structural changes, their intensity was assessed using 5 indices: indicators of linear and quadratic coefficients of absolute structural breaks, Gatev’s coefficient of structural differences, Salai’s general indicator of structural changes and Ryabtsev index. By relying on the cluster analysis, homogeneous groups are identified following the number of fires and the causes of structural changes in the periods of maximum and minimum shifts are considered. The biggest difference in the number of fires occurred between the 2013 and 2019 pair. In this period, the estimated indices have reached the maximum value. In terms of the quadratic coefficient, significant structural shifts are characteristic of most pairs relative to 2013 and 2014. This observation is confirmed by the Ryabtsev Index indicators, according to which the mentioned groups have a significant level of difference. Minimal structural changes are found for pairs 2013→2015; 2017→2018; 2015→2021 and 2020→2021. Linear approximation across all indices showed that structural shifts in the number of fires tended to increase. UPGMA-dendrogram was built on the basis of cluster analysis, which identified three homogeneous groups of regions according to the number of fires. A comparison of their numbers in 2013 and 2019 showed that the main structural shifts are formed by the first group, which included 6 areas: Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk regions, and the city of Kyiv, i.e., administrative-territorial entities where the majority of the population resides, the main share of industrial production is produced, and the key energy capacities of the country are located. Significant structural shifts in fire numbers from 2013 to 2021 are common for all regions and the city of Kyiv of group I and all regions (except Kirovohrad) of group III. This observation is confirmed by the Ryabtsev coefficient values. All Group I and Group III areas have a substantial or significant level of variation in fire incidence patterns. In the second cluster, only 4 oblasts of Transcarpathian, Luhansk, Poltava and Chernihiv have a significant level of shifts. Available volume of statistical data allows extending structural analysis using other indicators of the state of fire safety, such as the number of fires in cities and villages, number of victims and injured, material losses from fires, number of fires per 10 thousand population, damage per 10 thousand population, etc.