FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THE DOMESTIC STATE LOAN BONDS MARKET

Abstract

The functioning of the developed market of domestic government securities is extremely important for the effective attraction of resources in the process of financing budgetary needs and the proper functioning of the country's investment market. The work analyzed the dynamics of the yield of domestic state loan bonds and funds raised to the state budget from their placement on the stock market and the rate of inflation in Ukraine. It was found that the OVDP is currently the most profitable savings instrument. The state received high profits from the placement of domestic state loan bonds. Accelerated inflation affected the growth of OVDP yields. Domestic government loan bonds are an instrument of fiscal policy, as their main purpose is to provide a source of refinancing of public debt. The impact of the relationship between the yield of government bonds and the NBU discount rate in Ukraine was studied. Domestic state loan bonds are closely related to the NBU discount rate, which determines the yield of these securities. The issue of forecasting the profitability of domestic state loan bonds, inflation and funds raised to the state budget from their placement on the stock market is considered. Forecast data on the yield of OVDP remains sufficiently high in the case of unchanged conditions of the state of the country, which can ensure lively demand on the stock market and compete with deposit deposits. The obtained forecast gives hope for the recovery of economic activity. Risks of increased inflationary pressure remain primarily due to high security risks, which may negatively affect expectations. Factor analysis of the OVDP market is fundamentally important and necessary in the development of effective economic policy and measures to maintain a stable situation in the conditions of martial law in Ukraine.