THE STATE OF DOMESTIC PIG PRODUCTION. PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

Abstract

The pig industry remains one of the most promising in shaping Ukraine’s food security. The purpose of the research is to assess changes in the Ukrainian pork market under martial law and determine the prospects for the development of pig production as a strategically important industry. The article analyses analytical data on the state of the industry for the period 2012–2023, including the period of martial law in Ukraine. To summarise the trends and prospects for the development of pig breeding, the methods of synthesis and analysis, as well as the method of comparison were used. It is established that for more than a decade of observation, the lowest number of pigs was recorded at the beginning of 2024 – 5.0 million heads. Direct losses of industrial pig production as a result of hostilities are estimated at 10–12% compared to the pre-war level. Increasing the potential of industrial pig production in Ukraine is associated with improving the breeding core of pig farms. According to producers, in terms of the total number of main sows (225,000), Danish genetics prevail – 41%, followed by English genetics – 26%. Pork production in slaughter weight tended to decrease within 8.9–10.1% and in 2023 amounted to 649 thousand tonnes. In 2022, Ukraine imported 47 thousand tonnes of pork, the largest amount since 2014. Exports of Ukrainian pork in 2021 amounted to 3.8 thousand tonnes. In 2022, there was a catastrophic decline in pork exports to 0.3 thousand tonnes. The spread of African swine fever and hostilities have largely hindered the development of foreign trade. In 2022–2023, producers demonstrate a fairly high level of confidence in the domestic pig industry, with more than 50% of operators fully or partially implementing their development plans. It has been proven that the performance of individual domestic producers is comparable to the average performance of producers in Europe and the United States. At the beginning of a full-scale war, there was a systematic increase in live weight prices with an amplitude of price fluctuations of 42–86 UAH/kg. In the short term, producers will need to decide on production volumes and sales markets, as well as staffing for the production cycle. Given the multi-vector nature of modern agricultural production, the issue of financing further development depends on the state of the grain market and energy issues.